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Prediction Archives

Who will the D & R nominees be?

See intrade for folks betting money on the outcome.

And after the election, for analysis of what the election means in Congress, see our Capitol Hill Workshop: 2008 Election.


February 7, 2008 09:17 AM   Link    Comments (0)

"Germs and the City"

“Public health” (in the literal sense) now seems to be one thing, and--occasional lurid headlines notwithstanding--not a particularly important one, while “health care” is quite another.

We will bitterly regret this shift, and probably sooner rather than later. As another Victorian might have predicted--he published a book on the subject in 1859--germs have evolved to exploit our new weakness. Public authorities are ponderous and slow; the new germs are nimble and fast. Drug regulators are paralyzed by the knowledge that error is politically lethal; the new germs make genetic error--constant mutation--the key to their survival. The new germs don’t have to be smarter than our scientists, just faster than our lawyers. The demise of cholera, one could say, has been one of the great antisocial developments of modern times.

"Germs and the City," by Peter Huber, City Journal, Spring 2007


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May 27, 2007 06:57 AM   Link    Comments (0)

Snow, then chilly days

CapitalWeather says "tomorrow (spring's first full day) won't resemble anything like spring, with temperatures in the 30s and snowflakes in the air."

Will the snow affect schools? Unlikely. The flakes will start falling after decisionmaking time Tuesday morning. Any snow falling in the late morning to early afternoon is unlikely to stick. There's a slight chance of a period of snow Tuesday night which could cause a few slick spots --offering the possibility of a delay Wednesday morning.

"Winter to overshadow arrival of Spring," CapitalWeather, March 20, 2006

March 20, 2006 06:15 AM   Link    Comments (0)

Put your money where your mouth is

Long Bets is a web site where you can bet money on your own or others predictions. All winnings are donated to a charity of the winner's choice. This page describes how to make a bet.

Here are some of the predictions on Long Bets.

October 26, 2005 02:19 PM   Link    Comments (0)